Why Banks Should Conduct Market Research Before Finalizing Their Growth Plans

By Corey Wrinn, Managing Director at Rivel Banking Research

For most banks and credit unions, the challenge is not whether to conduct market research. It is deciding when to do it.

A familiar planning cycle unfolds every year. Finance establishes revenue goals during the summer, marketing receives its targets in the fall, and teams begin executing in January based on prior-year results, internal observations and assumptions about customer demand. By March, someone often requests new research.

Research can still provide useful information at that stage, but its ability to influence the current year is limited. Media plans may already be committed, creative work may be underway, growth markets may have been selected and product priorities may be fixed. Instead of shaping important decisions, the research becomes a report card on choices that have already been made.

That approach can be costly. Research typically represents only a small share of the media, product development or market expansion budgets it is intended to guide. However, it creates the greatest value when completed before those larger investments are committed.

Research conducted after a plan is finalized explains how decisions are performing. Research conducted before finalization can help determine which decisions should be made.

For many financial institutions, the ideal timing is approximately six months before the budget is approved. At that point, strategic priorities are still being discussed and funds can still be redirected.

Use Research to Test Assumptions and Challenge Internal Narratives

Before selecting a research project, identify the assumptions supporting the next growth plan. Consider questions such as:

• Which markets are expected to produce the strongest growth?
• Which customer and prospect segments are essential to the plan?
• What does the institution believe differentiates it from competitors?
• Why should a prospect choose the organization?
• Where might awareness or consideration be overestimated?
• What has changed in the markets since the last major review?

The next step is to ask whether each assumption is supported by current evidence.

Internal information can answer many questions. Account openings, attrition, product usage, digital activity, contact center feedback and campaign performance all provide valuable insight. Financial institutions should use these sources before commissioning additional work.

However, internal data generally explains what happened, not why it happened. It may not reveal why a prospect selected another institution, why consumers recognize a brand but would not consider using it, or why a seemingly attractive market continues to underperform. Those answers often require feedback from people who are not customers yet.

That is where market research can make a meaningful difference.

One recent study illustrated the gap between brand recognition and consideration. In research conducted in early 2026, 64% of consumers in one bank’s market identified the institution as an option, but only 4% said they would consider banking there. The comparable benchmark was 7%.

Leadership already understood that the bank had name recognition. The research revealed that recognition was not translating into enough serious consideration. The institution subsequently focused its messaging on closing that gap and converting brand familiarity into new business.

The finding was valuable because it arrived while the bank could still respond. If the same research had been delivered after the media and messaging plans were finalized, it would have explained a disappointing result rather than helping prevent one.

How Research Timing Should Change Throughout the Planning Cycle

More Than Six Months Before the Budget: Challenge the Strategy

This is the best time to investigate broad strategic questions because there is still time to act on the findings.

If leadership views a new geographic area as the next growth opportunity, research can test whether the market is genuinely attractive. If the plan relies on reaching younger households, research can identify the factors that influence their consideration. If the institution plans to invest behind a new brand position, research can determine whether consumers already associate the organization with that position.

The goal is not to collect more data for its own sake. The goal is to reduce the number of untested assumptions entering the budgeting process.

Three to Six Months Before the Budget: Determine Where Funds Should Go

At this stage, research questions should become more specific. A financial institution deciding between a rate promotion, a fee waiver or a new product feature might use a conjoint study to identify which option prospects value most before investing in the wrong one.

Before approving a study, ask:

• Which decision could this research change?
• Does existing data already answer the question?
• What is the financial impact if the current assumption is incorrect?

If the team cannot identify a decision that may change, the study may not be necessary.

One to Three Months Before Launch: Validate the Execution

As launch approaches, the central question changes from whether the institution has selected the right strategy to whether it is executing that strategy effectively.

Research at this point can test campaign messaging, evaluate the proposed channel mix and clarify the meaning of success before the campaign begins. Establishing success measures in advance is important because teams may otherwise select the metrics that appear most favorable after results are available.

After the Budget Is Approved: Continue Learning

A finalized budget should not create a fixed strategy. Financial institutions should continue monitoring brand perceptions, campaign results and competitor activity throughout the year.

Teams should also decide in advance what findings would justify a change in direction. Measurement without a related decision is simply reporting. Research becomes more valuable when the organization knows how it will respond to the results.

Not Every Business Question Requires New Research

Additional research is not always the answer. If campaign performance clearly shows that one channel is producing stronger results than another, the institution may be able to reallocate funds without conducting a separate study. When a market test is inexpensive, reversible and easy to evaluate, testing the idea directly may be more efficient.

Research is most valuable when the decision is expensive, difficult to reverse or based on information that internal data cannot provide.

Examples include entering a new market, repositioning the brand, launching a major product, targeting a new audience or determining why prospects continue choosing competitors.

Financial institutions do not need to research every decision. They need to identify their blind spots before committing significant resources.

A Practical Exercise for the Next Planning Meeting

Bring the relevant teams together and list the three to five most important assumptions behind the next growth plan. For each assumption, document the evidence supporting it. Then place every assumption into one of three categories:

• Know: Recent evidence supports the assumption.
• Think: Some evidence exists, but judgment is filling important gaps.
• Do not know: A significant decision is being made without sufficient information.

The research agenda should focus on the assumptions classified as “think” or “do not know.” Those questions should be addressed before the budget is finalized, not several months afterward.

Even if the next annual budget is already approved, the exercise remains useful. A midyear forecast and the following planning cycle may arrive sooner than expected.

If every assumption is labeled “know,” ask one more question: When was it last tested?

The most dangerous assumption in a growth plan is not always a bad assumption. It may be a reasonable assumption that the market has quietly stopped supporting.

Rivel Banking Research helps banks and credit unions evaluate growth strategies through primary research and focus groups conducted across the country.

Source: Thefinancialbrand.com