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Tesla is navigating a challenging landscape as investors brace for potential sales declines. This follows the company’s first-ever annual sales decrease in 2024, prompting concerns about its future growth trajectory.
Musk’s Political Stance Sparks Backlash
Protests against Elon Musk’s involvement in U.S. politics and far-right ideologies in Europe are impacting the Tesla brand. These protests are believed to be a key factor in the recent 13% drop in quarterly deliveries, the most significant decline in nearly three years.
Gene Munster of Deepwater Asset Management suggests that this brand damage is a primary driver behind the delivery decline, anticipating further deterioration in growth rates this quarter. He estimates a 9% decrease in 2025 deliveries compared to the 1.79 million reported last year.
Aging Lineup and Increasing Competition
Beyond political concerns, Tesla’s aging vehicle lineup is also contributing to the sales pressure. Rivals like BYD in China are introducing compelling EV alternatives, intensifying competition, particularly for the popular Model Y SUV. Tesla is also losing ground in the European market.
Model Y Refresh and Cheaper Car Hopes
The recent refresh of the Model Y, beginning with deliveries in China, offers a glimmer of hope. Investors are closely monitoring its impact on sales in the coming quarters.
Deutsche Bank analysts anticipate a 5% sales drop this year, banking on a phased launch of Tesla’s much-anticipated, more affordable vehicle. The company may prioritize delivery volumes through incentives and financial deals, potentially impacting margins.
Gary Black of The Future Fund emphasizes that the new affordable vehicle must be a compelling new product, not just a stripped-down version of an existing model, to drive significant sales and profit.
Barclays analysts highlight the challenging path ahead for achieving even flat year-over-year volume in 2025, given the first-quarter delivery numbers.
Production Line Adjustments
Tesla attributed the loss of several weeks of production during the first quarter to retooling production lines for the refreshed Model Y across its factories.
Stock Performance and Tariffs
Tesla’s stock closed down 5.5% on Thursday, following significant fluctuations triggered by new tariffs and the disappointing delivery figures. The stock is down 45% from its mid-December peak.
Musk has indicated that tariffs will increase costs for Tesla, which imports substantial battery materials. Morningstar analysts estimate that tariffs on these parts could add 5% to 10% to Tesla’s vehicle cost.
Protests and Vandalism
Tesla cars, showrooms, and charging stations have been targeted by vandals, prompting investigations. Protests are increasing, with demonstrators calling for a boycott of Tesla vehicles and stock.
Wedbush analyst Dan Ives considers Musk’s involvement at DOGE unsustainable, adding more risk to the Tesla story and potentially causing permanent brand damage.
Reporting by Abhirup Roy in San Francisco and Akash Sriram in Bengaluru; Editing by Sayantani Ghosh and Jamie Freed