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In a landmark decision, the U.S. Supreme Court (SCOTUS) has upheld an age verification law targeting adult content platforms, first adopted by the Texas state legislature in 2023. The 6-3 ruling in Free Speech Coalition et al. v. Paxton saw the parent companies of major adult entertainment sites challenging Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, arguing the law targeted otherwise protected speech. This verdict has significant implications, extending far beyond the adult entertainment industry and creating a lucrative new market for age verification technology.
The Impact of the Supreme Court’s Decision
The ruling raises immediate concerns about the erosion of First Amendment protections, as critics argue it prioritizes shielding eyes from online nudity over fundamental free speech rights. While the immediate focus might be on pornography, the broader ramifications could affect a wide array of online content.
Age Verification Companies Emerge as Key Beneficiaries
The most visible winners in the wake of this ruling are age verification software providers. The Age Verification Providers Association (AVPA), an industry trade group, represents companies that develop and market age assurance and identity verification products. Its members include prominent players such as Yoti, Privo, Envoc, Experian, and AgeChecked.com. Yoti is recognized globally for its age assurance technology, while Louisiana-based Envoc developed the first white-label age verification system to restrict access to sites like Aylo-owned Pornhub within specific states. With around 30 member companies, including international firms like UK-based Ondato, the AVPA is poised for significant growth.
This legal and regulatory shift is effectively creating an artificial market, potentially worth billions. Age verification providers are now becoming legally mandated vendors for industries that previously had no direct need for their services. Although age assurance laws currently form a patchwork across U.S. states, global trends in policymaking—especially in Republican-led states, Western Europe, and Australia—suggest these laws are here to stay and likely to expand.
A Multi-Billion Dollar Market and Widespread Content Blocks
The financial projections for this emerging market are substantial. According to 2021 AVPA data, the valuation for age verification within Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) member states that implement such laws is projected to reach GBP 9.8 billion within 10 to 15 years, equivalent to approximately $13.4 billion USD at current exchange rates. While a direct calculation for the adult entertainment industry’s forced adoption isn’t available, the expected revenue is “hefty,” given pornography’s consistent popularity as an online content category.
Globally, countries like Australia and the United Kingdom already have sweeping national age verification laws for nearly all internet content, including pornography, with Australia even preparing to require age checks for search engines like Google and Microsoft.
In the United States, roughly 20 of the 50 states now have some form of age assurance requirement for accessing pornography. Aylo, a leading adult entertainment company, has responded by blocking users in all these states. Recent blocks, effective July 1, 2025, included Georgia, South Dakota, and Wyoming. The full list of blocked states by Aylo-owned platforms includes Alabama, Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, Idaho, Indiana, Kansas, Kentucky, Mississippi, Montana, Nebraska, North Carolina, Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Virginia, and Wyoming.
This means a staggering 136.9 million Americans—approximately 40% of the U.S. population—now live under laws restricting their access to major adult content websites like Pornhub, RedTube, and Brazzers. While consumers can easily circumvent these age gates using a Virtual Private Network (VPN), rendering the laws largely ineffective for individuals, the adult industry firms remain legally obligated to comply, thus bolstering the age verification market.
The Flawed Reality of Age Verification Technology
Despite the massive market being created, the efficacy of age verification technology remains a significant concern. Studies on its accuracy and deployability often contradict the promotional claims made by AVPA member firms.
For instance, the Australian government’s Age Assurance Technology Trial (AATT) found that while age verification can be “effective,” its accuracy leaves much to be desired. A test conducted by the Australian Broadcasting Corporation revealed “key flaws” in facial scanning technology. In their trial, AI-augmented scans of a 16-year-old student’s face misidentified him as 19, 23, 26, and 37 years old.
Similarly, the U.S. National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) found that while some age assurance software is highly effective, it still struggles significantly in differentiating between adults’ and minors’ ages. The Open Technology Institute at New America also concluded that age verification tech is “not up to snuff.” NIST tests indicated that Yoti, considered the most accurate age-estimation software, still had an average error of 1 year, while most software made age estimation mistakes by 3.1 years on average.
Professor Lisa M. Given of the Royal Melbourne Institute of Technology, commenting on the AATT findings, warned of a “messy situation emerging immediately where people will have what they call false positives, false negatives.” These inaccuracies also raise significant concerns about privacy rights violations and potential data loss.
The question remains: Is a $13 billion industry, built on legally mandated vendor relationships and supported by technology with documented accuracy and privacy issues, truly worth the societal cost?
Michael McGrady covers the tech and legal sides of the online porn business.