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A recent Bloomberg report, based on interviews with former Microsoft employees, has ignited fresh debate regarding the financial impact and long-term viability of Xbox Game Pass. The report claims Microsoft internally estimated a staggering $300 million in lost sales revenue for Call of Duty: Black Ops 6 directly attributable to its day-one inclusion on the subscription service.
This revelation comes amid significant industry speculation, particularly given the surprising statistic that 82% of full-price copies sold for Black Ops 6 were on the PlayStation 5, a platform that does not offer Game Pass. This disparity raises critical questions about how Microsoft measures success for its flagship titles within the Game Pass ecosystem, especially as Call of Duty is now a Microsoft-owned franchise.
The Opaque Nature of Game Pass Performance
Unlike platforms such as Steam, which provide real-time metrics and are monitored by third parties, Game Pass operates as a relatively “black box.” Information about its financial health and game-specific performance is usually limited to periodic updates from Microsoft or, in this case, insider leaks. While Microsoft consistently asserts that the service is growing and popular, these claims stand in contrast to a recent steady drumbeat of mass layoffs and studio closures across Xbox in recent years.
The reported $300 million figure for Black Ops 6 emerged as an internal estimate, never intended for public disclosure. This internal origin lends a degree of credibility to the figure, suggesting it was crafted with an incentive for accuracy rather than public relations. Presumably, Microsoft generated this projection through sophisticated analytical models to assess the impact of a title being on Game Pass versus traditional retail sales.
Understanding the Financial Impact
To put the $300 million figure into perspective, industry analysts performed “back-of-the-napkin” calculations. These suggest that Game Pass would have needed an influx of roughly 15 million new Ultimate-tier subscribers for one month, or 1.25 million over an entire year (prior to recent price hikes), just to offset the theoretical revenue lost from Black Ops 6 not being sold at full price. Microsoft last publicly updated its Game Pass subscriber count to 34 million in 2024, a figure that remains unchanged this year.
This calculation highlights the complex financial tightrope Microsoft walks with Game Pass. The service offers a kaleidoscopic variety of pricing tiers and subscription durations, making a direct revenue comparison challenging. Furthermore, simply matching theoretical retail revenue might not be the ultimate goal; publishers often aim for significantly stronger returns from a flagship gaming endeavor than old models, especially after major acquisitions.
Black Ops 6: Record Sales, Dominant PlayStation Presence
Despite the projected sales loss, IGN reported that Black Ops 6 set a series sales record upon its release, alongside a record for new Game Pass subscriptions on a single day. However, the Bloomberg report contextualizes this success: a significant 82% of those full-price sales occurred on PlayStation 5. This data underscores PlayStation’s enduring market dominance for the Call of Duty franchise, even as it becomes a core part of Microsoft’s gaming portfolio.
Microsoft’s continued silence on the specific combined metrics it uses to determine a game’s success on Game Pass versus retail sales leaves much to extrapolation. The company’s public actions, such as recent studio closures and the widely criticized Game Pass price hikes, continue to fuel concerns about the health of the industry. Many observers believe these moves reflect the financial pressures of Microsoft’s ambitious bet on Game Pass, raising questions about the broader implications for AAA development and industry consolidation under a few major players like Microsoft and Sony.
The long-term economic model of Game Pass remains a subject of intense debate, with the latest Black Ops 6 figures providing crucial, if concerning, data points for analysis.