EVs Surge: Big Oil’s Reign Threatened, Tax Credits or Not

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The reign of Big Oil is facing an undeniable challenge: the rise of electric vehicles (EVs). Despite recent setbacks in U.S. policy, the global shift towards electric mobility continues to accelerate, promising a significant reduction in oil demand.

While the U.S. government delivered a perceived victory to the fossil fuel industry by dismantling clean energy incentives, the long-term impact on the EV market remains optimistic. According to BloombergNEF’s Electric Vehicle Outlook 2025, EVs are already displacing millions of barrels of oil daily, and this trend is projected to intensify.

Even with a potential slowdown in U.S. EV sales due to policy changes, the global transition towards cleaner energy is unstoppable. Europe and China are leading the charge in EV adoption, leaving the U.S. to play catch-up.

The Numbers Speak Volumes

The impact of EVs on oil consumption is already substantial. In 2018, early EV adoption displaced one million barrels of road fuel per day. By 2024, that figure doubled to two million barrels – equivalent to the daily oil consumption of South Korea.

Projections indicate that by the end of the decade, EVs will displace over five million barrels of road fuel per day. This decline in oil demand has major oil producers strategizing for a future dominated by electric vehicles.

Big Oil’s EV Pivot

Recognizing the inevitable shift, major oil companies are making significant investments in the EV sector. Chevron is acquiring land for lithium extraction, a critical component in EV batteries. BP is investing heavily in charging infrastructure, partnering with companies like Tesla and Alpitronic. Shell Recharge is expanding its global network of charging stations, including a massive facility in Shenzhen with 258 fast-charging stalls.

The message is clear: Big Oil is preparing for a future where EVs play a central role. Even without U.S. leadership, the global momentum towards electric vehicles is set to continue, disrupting the petroleum industry and paving the way for a cleaner, more sustainable transportation landscape.

Source: Suvrat Kothari

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