Black Ops 6: Game Pass May Have Cost Microsoft $300M in Sales; PS5 Accounts for 82% of Purchases

A recent Bloomberg report, drawing on discussions with former Microsoft staff, has intensified discussions regarding the financial sustainability of Game Pass. The report notably highlights Microsoft’s alleged internal projection concerning the revenue lost by Call of Duty: Black Ops 6 due to its inclusion on the popular subscription platform.

While platforms like Steam provide transparent real-time sales data, Game Pass operates as a more opaque system. Information on its performance largely comes from infrequent official updates or leaks, such as those featured in the Bloomberg piece. Despite Microsoft’s claims of Game Pass’s growth and popularity, the Xbox division has recently faced numerous mass layoffs and studio shutdowns, raising questions about overall health.

According to one former employee interviewed by Bloomberg, the $300 million figure represents a conservative internal estimate. While some have expressed skepticism, drawing parallels to how publishers often inflate piracy losses, this situation differs significantly.

Unlike public statements, this internal projection, never intended for widespread release, casts a critical shadow on a key company initiative. The inherent motivation behind such an estimate would be accuracy, not PR. Although the precise methodology behind Microsoft’s calculation remains undisclosed, it likely stemmed from sophisticated financial modeling and projections.

Kotaku’s own analysis highlighted the significant scale of this potential loss, calculating that Game Pass would need to acquire 15 million new Ultimate-tier subscribers in a single month, or 1.25 million over a year (before recent price adjustments), to offset the projected Black Ops 6 revenue shortfall. Microsoft last reported Game Pass’s total subscriber base at 34 million in 2024, a figure that has not been updated since.

Considering the diverse array of Game Pass pricing tiers and subscription lengths, merely matching the theoretical retail revenue from standard game sales presents a complex financial challenge. Ideally, Microsoft would aim for its flagship gaming service to generate substantially higher revenue than traditional sales models.

Interestingly, amidst these internal figures, IGN previously reported that Black Ops 6 achieved a franchise sales record upon its launch, alongside a record for single-day Game Pass subscriptions. However, the Bloomberg report clarifies a crucial detail: a staggering 82% of these full-price retail sales for Black Ops 6 occurred on the PlayStation 5, a platform without Game Pass, even though Call of Duty is now a Microsoft-owned property.

With Microsoft maintaining strict confidentiality regarding Game Pass’s overall financial health and its metrics for evaluating individual game success across both subscription and retail channels, external observers are often left to infer the service’s performance from the company’s visible actions.

The recent waves of studio closures and price hikes by Microsoft, including for Game Pass itself, raise ongoing concerns about the broader health of the gaming industry. This trend, coupled with the increasing consolidation of AAA development under giants like Microsoft and Sony, suggests that the market may indeed be collectively bearing the costs of Microsoft’s ambitious Game Pass strategy.